Estimate Waterfowl Nests on Monte Vista National Wildlife

Estimate Waterfowl Nests on four-card monte persuasion field Wildlife use issuedo SAMPLING TO ESTIMATE WATER FOWL NESTS ON four-card monte VISTANATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE, COLORADO, USAPrincipal InvestigatorNicole J. Traub, College of Arts and Sciences, University of conscientious objector at Boulder, 275 UCB,A Research Proposal ensureJustification step dwell triumph is extremely in-chief(postnominal) in revisal to reconcile the well-being of avian populations. Biologists have been attempting to infer the status of avian species by estimating pass judgment of births and deaths to determine population growth and stability (Johnson, 1979 Newson et al., 2008). One vizor of avian birth rate that is easy to gauge is the percentage of draw nears that hatch, which is engage as an indirect peak of reproduction (Johnson, 1979). Nest success rates bottomland also be employ to hypothesis causes for dec argumentations in avian populations, i.e. habitat degradation,predation, overh unting, dis lull, environmental contaminants, etc. (Beauchamp et al., 1996). Nest success is defined as a nest in which at least angiotensin converting enzyme ball hatched and the presence of detached shell membranes is the best evidence that bombard hatched (Klett et al., 1986). Nest failure usually results from predation but they whitethorn have been abandoned if the hens be disturbed during the early stages of egg egg laying (Klett et al., 1986).Transect try out is widely used by wildlife managers and seekers to estimate population sizes of inanimate and animate objects (Newson et al., 2008). Transect studies designed to estimate inanimate object population size, such as water bird nests, usually proceed as fol low-downs the area to be sampled is defined random (or systematic) transect lines are placed throughout the area transects are searched to record the detection of the bailiwick object (Anderson and Pospahala,1970). Bias is unavoidable in population size ( tautne ss) estimates therefore, it is important to recognize the source(s) of diagonal and adjust for them. An important source of bias lies in the transect take methods themselves. If whatsoever objects are non detected, then the expanded population estimate pass on be demoralise than the true population size unless adjustments are made (Burnham et al., 1980 Buckland et al., 2001). This source of bias is very important when sight objects that are small, secretive, or well out of sight however, when detecting large or inanimate objects, this source of bias whitethorn be of little importance (Anderson and Pospahala,1970).The basic output from line transect take in is the encounter rate, which is the subject of detections per distance walked. This method coffin nail be used to estimate relative stringency but it does non account for detectability which can vary depending on the study object and habitat (Marshall et al., 2008). In set to compensate for incomplete counts and pro blems with detectability, one can measure the distance from the transect to all(prenominal) observation (distance have) (Burnham and Anderson, 1984). The sample population is then the area sampled rather than the objects of interest. For example, the population sampled is a population of line transects in a given area, for distributively one line transect is a sample unit, and the object of interest (waterfowl nests) is the variate associated with each transect (Anderson and Posahala, 1970 Marshall et al., 2008).Four assumptions must be met in order to involve valid inferences about population densities using distance consume (in order of importance) (1) all objects that fall on the transect line are detected with certainty (2) objects do not move either away from or towards the percipient prior to detection (3) right distance selective information are measure accurately and (4) all detections are independent of each other (Burnham and Anderson, 1984 Buckland et al., 2001). These assumptions can be violated in many ways including, but not limited to, inexperienced or untrained observers, lack of interest in the observer, fatigue, speed of travel down the transect, transect width, habitat type, time of day, season, sun angle, intemperate weather, object size, shape, coloration, and habits (Burnham and Anderson, 1984 Buckland et al., 2001 Marshall et al., 2008).Both plunder transects and line transects can be useful measures of population density. However, the key difference between them is that density can be estimated using line transects based on distance without some of the bias innate to pull down transects. Line transects require only the perpendicular distance to the object. In contrast, strip transect density estimates are usually low because not all objects in the strip are detected (Burnham et al., 1980 Burnham and Anderson,1984 Buckland et al., 2001).A previous study completed on the monte Vista guinea pig Wildlife safe (Anderson and Po sahala, 1970) estimated waterfowl nest density using strip transects with a narrow width (8.25 ft. each side). This method is impractical and inefficient for sampling large areas since an insufficient number of objects may be detected after covering great distances (Anderson and Posahala, 1970). In contrast, this redact proposes to utilize distance sampling with systematically placed line transects to obtain a full waterfowl nest census in order to determine nest distribution, nest success, and nest density.ObjectivesThe purpose of this study is to test the possibility of employing a distance-based samplingprotocol utilizing line transects to estimate waterfowl nest density. Specifically, the objectives are to1. assess and expand upon previous density estimates of waterfowl nests in theMonte Vista National Wildlife Refuge.2. Determine if line transect sampling is more(prenominal) efficient than strip transect sampling for calculating waterfowl nest density.3. Implement a distanc e-based line transect approach to calculatinga. Number of successful nests b. Number of depredated nests c. Total number of nestsMethodsandStudy DesignThe general survey design testament equal Anderson and Pospahala (1970). Thus, the survey design exit involve at least 20 transects that go out be oriented north to south across the Refuge and spaced150 feet apart. Total transect length pass on depend on the desired coefficient of variation (described below). Transects pull up stakes be systematically overlaid a part of the Refuge prior to the start of the project to avoid bias in the way of vegetation or land use gradients (Figure 1). A transect will be randomly selected and a subsequent transect 150 feet away will be walked. This method will be followed in a sequential manner until all transects have been walked (Anderson and Pospahala,1970 Buckland et al., 2001).Figure 1 Potential embodiment of line transects throughout the Monte Vista NationalWildlife RefugeThe Monte Vist a National Wildlife Refuge is home to several species of migratory waterfowl such as ducks and geese that rely on the refuge for breeding. Some species descend on the refuge earlier than others. To mitigate the possibility of not detecting nests due to waterfowl arrival, this project will collect data double a year, once during mid-May and once between mid-July to mid- August (Monte Vista, 2017). have effort, and hence cost, depends on the acceptable amount of uncertainty (randomness) in the density estimates. The coefficient of variation (CV) measures the uncertainty of the density estimate. Meaning that it measures how much the density estimate would transplant if the data were collected again (Burnham et al., 1980 Buckland et al., 2001 Schnupp, 2017a). The greater the variation in the estimate, the farther the estimate is from the true value. To control for fluctuations in variation, this project will utilize a systematic survey design with many transects (large sample size) and each transect will aim to have similar encounter rates (Figure 1).For ease of navigation and repeatability, pre-established transects will be uploaded through Mapwel 2016 to Garmin Etrex GPS units (Garmin International Incorporated, Olathe, Kansas). For each nest detected, the perpendicular distance from the center of the nest to the transect line, nest state (depredated or successful), and waterfowl type (duck or non-duck) will be recorded. Program DISTANCE 7.0 (Buckland et al., 2001) will be used to calculate overall nest density, density of successful nests, and density of depredated nests for both waterfowl types. If strong habitat differences are encountered during the survey, stratification will be used in post- processing of the data to reduce variation and improve the precision of density estimates. Data will be pooled from all transects to increase model robustness. Data pooling helps even out minor fluctuations in object density between transects and lead to more preci se density estimations (Fewster et al., 2005). Various detection functions will be evaluated in DISTANCE, including uniform, half-normal, hazard rate, and negative exponential with simple polynomial, hermite polynomial, or cosine adjustments. A detection function will be selected from the competing models using Akaikes Information quantity (AIC) values and goodness of fit using Chi-square analysis (Buckland et al., 2001).ExpectedResultsandBenefits accustomed that nest success is viewed as empirical evidence for reproduction success and population status, it is imperative that estimates of density be as accurate as possible. The proposed research will (1) analyze the effectiveness of line transect distance sampling versus strip transect sampling and (2) provide an accurate, efficient, and cost-effective method to determine waterfowl nest success and distribution on the Monte Vista National Wildlife Refuge, Colorado, USA.Upon confirmation of funding, research protocols will be refine d in credit with Monte Vista National Wildlife Refuge personnel and Colorado lay and Wildlife. Annual progress treats will be submitted and a final report detailing findings and recommendations will be submitted within 1 year of look at completion. Research results will be presented at professional scientific meetings and promulgated in peer-reviewed scientific journals where Monte VistaNational Wildlife Refuge will be acknowledged as a major funding contributor. Additionally, if desired, one or more Monte Vista National Wildlife Refuge employees will be listed as a coauthor in all presentations and publications.Project deliverables will includePh.D. dissertation and corresponding scientific publicationsScientific presentations at state, regional, and international conferences (undergraduate and graduate)Spreadsheets for calculation of density estimatesTechnical bulletin comparing the energy of estimating nest density using distance sampling with line transects and strip transe cts.EndangeredSpeciesConsiderationsThis section is not applicable to the proposed project.NecessityandEthical partofAnimalsThis study will determine nest success and estimate of density of waterfowl on the Monte VistaNational Wildlife Refuge, Colorado, USA. every(prenominal) prerequisite precautions will be utilized to avoid harm to waterfowl during this study however, an Animal Care and Use Form is being submitted with this proposal for research approval.PersonnelThe principal investigator of this study will be Nicole J. Traub, M.S. and the project will involve1 Ph.D. candidate. Additionally, 5 part-time student workers will be hired to assist with research activities and data collection.BudgetAll items are budgeted for 2x year sampling5%CV10%CV20%CV25%CV281.32LINE ITEMTransect miles7,032.971,758.24439.56Sampling hours2,344.32586.08146.5293.77Sampling time(in days)17322117Salary/undergraduate3,751.36936.32234.08152.00Salary/year(5 undergraduates)18,756.804,681.601,170.4760.00Sala ry/P.I.16,200.0016,200.0016,200.0016,200Fringe (0.7% salary)244.70146.17114.22118.72Medical13,108.34,741.304,741.303,346.80Field supplies3,000.003,000.001,000.001,000.00 living accommodations10,034.001,276.00638.00406.00Expected mileage13,872.401,645.61,754.801,193.8Mileage reimbursement6,936.201,288.6877.40596.90Yearly Budget$95,454.05$36,281.91$27,327.28$24,156.31Total Expenses$286,362.15$108,845.73$81,981.84$72,468.93(3 Yearbudget) literatureCited Anderson, D.R. and R.S. Pospahala. 1970. Correction of bias in belt transect studies of immotile objects. The Journal of Wildlife care 34(1)141-146.Beauchamp, W. D., R.R. Koford, T. D. Nudds, R. G. Clark, and D.H. Johnson. 1996. Long-term declines in nest success of prairie ducks. The Journal ofWildlife Management 60 (2)247-257.Buckland, S. T., D. R. Anderson, K. P. Burnham, J. L. Laake, D. L. Borchers, and L. Thomas. 2001.Introduction to distance sampling estimating abundance of biological populations. OxfordUniversity Press, New Yor k, USA. 432p.Burnham, K. P., D. R. Anderson. 1984. The enquire for distance data in transect counts. TheJournal ofWildlife Management 48 (4)1248-1254.Burnham, K. P., D. R. Anderson, and J. L. Laake. 1980. love of density from line transect sampling of biological populations. Wildlife Monographs. (72)3-202.Fewster, R.M., J. L. Laake, and S. T. Buckland. 2005. Line transect sampling in small and large regions. Biometrics. 61 (3)856-859.Johnson, D.H. 1979. Estimating nest success The Mayfield Method and an alternative. TheAuk96 (4)651-661.Klett, A.T., H.F. Duebbert, C. A. Faanes, and K.F. Higgins. 1986. Techniques for studying nest success of duck in upland habitats in the Prairie Pothole region. Resource Publication158. 24 p.Marshall, A.R., J. C. Lovett, and P.C.L. White. Selection of line-transect methods for estimating the density of group-living animals lessons from primates. 2008. AmericanJournal of Primatology70452-462.Monte Vista. 2017. Monte Vista National Wildlife Refuge. ht tps//www.fws.gov/refuge/Monte_Vista/wildlife_and_habitat/index.html.Newson, S. E., K. L. Evans, D. G. Noble, J. J. D. Greenwood, and K. J. Gaston. 2008. Use of distance sampling to improve estimates of national population sizes for common and widespread breeding birds in the UK. Journal of Applied Ecology451330-1338.Schnupp, M. 2017a. Sample units and transect design. PowerPoint presentation. Estimating Wildlife Populations course-WSCI 6390. http//schnuppconsulting.com/wp- center/uploads/2017/01/2-Sample-Units-Transect-Design.pdf.Schnupp, M. 2017b. Distance Sampling Assumptions. PowerPoint presentation. Estimating Wildlife Populations course-WSCI 6390. http//schnuppconsulting.com/wp- content/uploads/2017/01/4-Distance-Sampling-Assumptions.pdf.